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Mathematical Dispersion Modeling

Our atmospheric dispersion modeling skills and over 70 years of modeling experience are unsurpassed. Horizon Environmental meteorologists have conducted complex dispersion modeling analyses in support of Prevention of Significant Deterioration projects, air toxic evaluations, human health risk assessments, accidental chemical release scenarios, odor mitigation analyses, visibility impairment studies, forensic investigations in support of litigation matters or enforcement proceedings, and in support of minor source installation permit applications for our clients. Dispersion modeling analyses have been conducted for a wide variety of industrial and manufacturing clientele located in Michigan and throughout the United States, as well as internationally, including the automotive, utility, petroleum, steel, pulp and paper, pharmaceutical, aggregates and asphalt, natural gas and oil pipeline, and general manufacturing sectors.

Horizon Environmental meteorologists are adept at choosing the appropriate dispersion model to best simulate the characteristics of the emissions source or release scenario, identifying and obtaining representative meteorological data to be utilized in the modeling analysis, investigating land use and processing terrain data in simple and complex terrain situations, conducting complex building downwash analyses, developing in-house computer applications to support specialized air quality impact assessments, and analyzing the results of dispersion model simulations through the use of Geographic Information Systems (“GIS”) platforms. Many firms can run a dispersion model, but we understand the science behind the models and have vast experience applying innovative and permissible dispersion modeling techniques not commonly employed to not only demonstrate compliance with applicable requirements, but to also provide our clients with optimum operational flexibility.

Examples of unique dispersion modeling solutions provided by Horizon Environmental’s air quality professionals include:
  • Conducted modeling analyses in support of a significant pollution control project at a major utility located near Lake Erie. Used AERMOD to demonstrate that the installation of flue gas desulfurization and the associated construction of new, shorter stacks would not result in adverse air quality impacts. Used CALPUFF to successfully demonstrate that the proposed project would not cause adverse impacts during a potential shoreline fumigation event. The analysis required the acquisition and processing of multiple surface meteorological stations, on-site meteorological towers, and off-shore buoy data to simulate the creation of a thermal internal boundary layer over the facility.


  • As part of a successful effort to de-list a compound from U.S. EPA’s Title III list of HAPs, utilized dispersion modeling techniques to demonstrate that the nation-wide production of the compound will not result in injurious off-site consequences, even if emitted from a single facility.


  • Used dispersion modeling techniques to develop site-specific particulate soil inhalation criteria (“PSIC”) for manganese-impacted soils at a large industrial complex. The PSIC were developed 1) consistent with PSIC guidance developed by the State regulatory agency; 2) applying scientifically appropriate variations to the guidance; and 3) site-specific emission and meteorological conditions characteristic of the industrial complex. The site-specific PSIC will limit the extent of potential soil remediation activities, resulting in substantial cost savings to the client


  • In a successful effort to reduce estimated impacts from a significant combustion source, thus saving the applicant from the requirement to install additional control measures, Horizon staff were able to use an innovative technique with which the State regulatory agency was not familiar to examine the shape of a building and adjust the manner in which the emissions are impacted by building downwash.


  • As a means of more accurately simulating the dispersion and transformation of emissions of NOx from a combustion source to downwind NO2 impacts, Horizon staff incorporated theoretical ozone limiting procedures to the U.S. EPA’s Industrial Source Complex model.


  • Successfully conducted a comprehensive multiple-route risk assessment in support of a RCRA Part B permit for a cement manufacturer proposing to burn hazardous wastes as supplemental fuel. Conducted dispersion modeling analyses of volatile, semi-volatile, and metal emissions from the kiln stack, as well as cement kiln dust from storage activities and other fugitive sources to assess inhalation concentrations and deposition rates resulting in indirect exposures.
For more information email Brian Leahy or call him at our Grand Rapids office - (616) 554-3210.
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